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4

Agricultural Change and Its Drivers: A Regional Outlook

Coordinating Lead Authors:
M. Monirul Qader Mirza (Canada), Rajeswari S. Raina (India)

Lead Authors:
Anna Matysek (Australia), Ma Shimming (China)

Review Editor:
Thelma Paris (The Philippines)

Key Messages

4.1 Context for Looking Forward 114
  4.1.1 Approaches of scenarios development and impact assessment 115
  4.1.2 Assessment approach for ESAP 115
4.2 Drivers of Agricultural Change 116
  4.2.1 Demographic change 116
    4.2.1.1   Population growth 116
    4.2.1.2 Demographic factors 116
    4.2.1.3   Age structure 117
    4.2.1.4   Gender composition 117
    4.2.1.5   Rural-urban and inter-regional migration 118
  4.2.2 Economic drivers 119
    4.2.2.1 Gross domestic product 119
    4.2.2.2 Agricultural productivity 119
    4.2.2.3 Commodity prices 122
    4.2.2.4 Globalization, economic growth and agricultural markets 122
  4.2.3 Implications of growth for agriculture 123
    4.2.3.1   Food consumption and demand 123
    4.2.3.2 Implications of GDP growth for agriculture 126
  4.2.4 Sociopolitical drivers 126
    4.2.4.1  Economic liberalization and regulation 126
    4.2.4.2 Political stability 127
    4.2.4.3   Deregulation 128
    4.2.4.4 Infrastructure 128
    4.2.4.5 Regional cooperation 129
    4.2.4.6 Agricultural trade 130
    4.2.4.7 NGOs and civil society 131
  4.2.5 Education, culture, ethics and health 131
    4.2.5.1   Employment 131
    4.2.5.2 Education 132
    4.2.5.3 Indigenous knowledge 132
    4.2.5.4 Human and ecosystem health 133
  4.2.6 Science and technology 135
    4.2.6.1   Research investment 135
    4.2.6.2 Research organizations and institutions 136
    4.2.6.3 Biotechnology, transgenic crops and pesticides 138
    4.2.6.4 Pesticide and herbicide use 139
    4.2.6.5 Innovation or generation and utilization of knowledge 139
  4.2.7 Natural resources—land use and water use, land cover change 140
  4.2.8 Climate change, natural hazards and adaptation 142
    4.2.8.1   Climate change and agriculture 142
    4.2.8.2 Floods 143
    4.2.8.3 Droughts 143
    4.2.8.4 Pest attack and diseases 143
    4.2.8.5 Adaptation 143
    4.2.8.6 Food security and human migration 144
  4.2.9 Energy 145
    4.2.9.1  Energy crisis in agriculture 145
    4.2.9.2 Bioenergy 145
    4.2.9.3 Bioelectricity or electricity from biomass 146
    4.2.9.4 Competing land uses and implications for food security 146
    4.2.9.5   Outsourcing of biofuel feedstock production 147
    4.2.9.6 Pollution and health impacts 147
4.3 Major Uncertainties of the Drivers and Projections 147
4.4 Relevance and Implications for Agriculture and AKST 149
  4.4.1 Drivers of change and implications for agriculture 149
  4.4.2 Relevance and implications for AKST to achieve development goals 151

112

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