any carbon fertilization (Parry et al., 2004). By 2050 (midterm) and 2080 (long-term), the additional people at risk of hunger could increase to 132 and 266 million, respectively.
Rural to urban migration may increase if sufficient income sources are not available in rural areas. Countries of the ESAP region could face substantial food shortages unless they succeed in adapting to environmental changes. The situation does not look optimistic given the recent stagnancy in agricultural productivity. Higher temperatures, increased rainfall, drier summer months and saline water intrusion will decrease agriculture productivity in the short to midterm. In the long-term, technological breakthroughs may alter the situation. However, this will be highly dependent on the development, deployment, and diffusion of new technologies. The commitment of individual countries to reduce emissions and enable mitigation and adaptation to climate change will be crucial.
4.2.9 Energy
4.2.9.1 Energy crisis in agriculture
Access to adequate, reliable and affordable supplies of modern energy sources, such as hydrocarbons or electricity, is minimal and traditional energy sources for food production, such as fuelwood, biomass and human and animal power, are also diminishing. Since global energy use is unsustainable in the long term, the energy sector is undergoing a shift toward energy efficiency and conservation in addition to the development of renewable and recyclable energy sources. Rural areas have the advantage of transitioning to more sustainable energy systems by employing techniques such as organic farming, improved water and soil management, integrated pest management, mechanization and biotechnology. Technological and institutional challenges remain in building the capacity of rural areas to adopt more sustainable measures, which often involve high initial investments in capital, labor and training. If rural populations are excluded from the shift to sustainability there is a risk of massive emigration to urban centers (Dutkiewicz, 1999).
Regional groundwater exploitation has escalated at the expense of the energy economy. South Asia as a whole spends 5 to 6 billion USD per year to pump approximately 210 km3 of water, mostly for irrigation (with 27-35% of the power being subsidized). Economic losses in the electricity sector due to agricultural power subsidies are estimated at 5.4 billion USD in India (Shah et al., 2003). While farmers |
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will soon be faced with water availability issues, such as declining water levels, high rate of well-failure, salinity and reduced well-yields, irrigation will face high energy costs and unreliable electricity supply. Energy demands for agriculture activities can be influenced by climate change, in the form of increased electricity requirements for irrigation pumping during warmer weather to maintain soil moisture (IPCC, 2007).
4.2.9.2 Bioenergy
The general emerging pattern is to move from traditional bioenergy (wood fuels, charcoals, etc.) to modern fuels as household income rises (Barnes and Floor, 1996). However, with rising oil prices and falling oil supplies, concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and political instability in many oil rich countries, there is a renewed interest in bioenergy, mostly liquid biofuels but also for electricity generation. Improving the efficiency and reducing the harm of traditional bioenergy remains a challenge and needs to be addressed.
Bioenergy can take the form of solid biomass or liquid biofuels (Bird Life International, 2005; Tustin, 2006). In ESAP, the main energy crops include sugar, coconut, cassava, castor kernel and oil palm. Since supporting local farmers is good politics for national leaders, policymakers are directing resources towards the biofuel cause (Yuit and Wall, 2006). It can benefit commercial plantations and similar agriculture in the rural areas. The rural dwellers can also benefit from the use of by-products from bioenergy production. However, increasing food prices, potential deforestation and depletion of water resources could emerge as byproduct environmental problems. In addition, a variety of energy inputs used during the cultivation of feed stocks and production of biofuels can produce greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming.
World primary energy demand projections suggest that the supply of non-hydro renewables as a percentage of global electricity supply/electricity generation will triple from 2% in 2002 to 6% in 2030. While wind power will see the biggest increase from 0.3% in 2002 to 3% in 2030 and is expected to succeed biomass as the largest source of non-hydro renewable electricity generation, it is anticipated that electricity generation from biomass will triple between now and 2030. Furthermore, the demand for biomass and waste fuels will rise by 1.3%, of which 0.7% is attributed to traditional biomass (IEA, 2004) (Table 4-6).
Both Thailand and India have launched national poli- |