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Agricultural Change and Its Drivers: A Regional Outlook | 149
Table 4-7. Major uncertainties and likely impacts in the ESAP region.
Key Uncertainties |
Drivers of change directly affected |
Implications for agriculture, food systems, products and services |
Implications for development and sustainability goals in the ESAP region |
Confederation of Asia-Pacific States (2020-2050) |
Political stability Civic space Energy/Climate change Economic growth |
• Increasing domestic strife |
• Asia-Pacific Union/ Parliament emerges |
CC, 2007
2Industrial capitalism "will walk out of the economy silently, on its toes" after it has wreaked havoc on humanity and the ecosystem.Beck, 1992.
3Tammen, 2006; Christensen, 2007
4Muni, 2004
The implications of these uncertainties for AKST are many and varied. Climate change and consequent variations in crop/animal production and productivity may increase investments in AKST but have a diminishing success rate over time if climate change continues to worsen. Increasing resource constraints and deteriorating law and order situations could impose restrictions on access to, participation in, and utilization of, technology and knowledge for millions of people. 4.4 Relevance and Implications for Agriculture and AKST 4.4.1 Drivers of change and implications for agriculture |
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decisions in the region. The latter may include options for domestic social security nets, regional and global trade choices, impacts on and investments to mitigate global climate change processes and may also lead to internal negotiations and alignments within the region among countries willing to adopt different paths to address social and environmental sustainability. The overall sociopolitical power play in the region is an important dimension that underpins this discussion. 1. Given the decreasing share of agriculture in the economy of the region, and its overriding importance in providing employment, food, nutrition and health, social and environmental well-being, it is clear that agriculture can provide solutions only if appropriate macroeconomic policies are in place. Despite impressive overall economic growth and a declining share in the overall economy (GDP), agriculture will continue to play a major role in the economy of ESAP countries, mainly because it will continue to be the mainstay for a large proportion of the rural population in almost all the developing ESAP countries and will be a major contributor to environmental degradation as well as a focus of environmental remediation in both developing and developed ESAP countries. |
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