the population in the poorest countries of the region that are importers of food and agricultural products and/or that have a reduced capacity to offer quality education.
     Policies to reduce the vulnerability of these countries and their people by reducing their dependence, primarily on food, are extremely important. A short-term, but less recommended alternative would be to guarantee food security in the most vulnerable countries, which are the current food importers.
     An effort to guarantee quality education for the people in these countries in a consistent and lasting way would be another way of reducing risks. It is important to also bear in mind that this effort would be facilitated in the world described by this scenario, in which education and knowledge are the basis for the development model.
     There is a large migration from rural areas, which will increase urban poverty. Policies to offset this phenomenon would have to be implemented, primarily in the poorest countries.

3.5.2 Order from strength

3.5.2.1 Implications for innovation policies
In this scenario, the key element is the existence of barriers and the division between groups of countries. This division causes an increase in all the types of vulnerability found in LAC countries today.
     In a scenario of scarce resources like this one, the R&D agenda focuses on efficiency and is governed by a businesslike approach, and the safety of commodities. At risk of disappearing in this scenario, generation of technologies must find creative forms in terms of implementation, but also to ensure the conditions, i.e., financial resources and capacity, needed to develop them.
     In view of the weakness of R&D in the public sector, policies are needed to ensure that it is adequately maintained/ restructured, in order to generate capacity in line with national and international demand. This applies even to countries that currently have a greater capacity to generate technology, such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico.
     The poorer countries need policies for innovation and coordination of research with extension services and technology transfer, which make it possible to generate, adapt, and adopt technologies suitable for the most vulnerable sectors.
     In the case of technology transfer and extension services, greater financing as well as a restructuring of capacities, infrastructure, procedures and focal points are required. In this scenario, the system is in a very weak condition today in most countries. Even the few countries that invest most in these activities, i.e., Cuba, Brazil, Paraguay, and Peru, need some assistance to remain efficient.
     The research agenda for a weakened R&D system in which demand is diversified and problems are acute requires a major effort to establish priorities for the allocation of scarce resources. Epidemics, the impact of climate change, and food security are competing for these resources. This means that R&D must receive and act on strong, precise, leading strategic proposals on the areas of research to pursue.

3.5.2.2 Implications for sustainable development policies
According to this scenario, international trade restrictions are one of the principal factors determining the sharp decline in virtually all conditions in the LAC countries. Consequently, policies to reduce barriers to Latin American agriculture are needed. On a global level, policies promoting multilateral relations would be important, as a way of avoiding such a negative scenario, especially for the most vulnerable countries.
     The division among countries and regions in this scenario calls for regional cooperation to overcome intraregional weaknesses in capacity and infrastructure, among other things; thus governments should give consideration and priority to this.
     In view of the greater risk of epidemics, the effects of climate change, and environmental deterioration, special policies are also required to train and assist the most vulnerable groups to overcome the vulnerabilities prevalent in this scenario. The Central American and Caribbean countries are most affected by these negative influences. There are also losses in South America, due to climate change.
     As for food security, which is highly compromised in this scenario in virtually every country, food importing countries have the option of planning and implementing policies to overcome their dependence or, if this objective cannot be attained, to establish mechanisms to assist their most vulnerable population segments.
     Education policies to facilitate access by the most vulnerable sectors also need to be implemented, as do policies to compensate for the impact of migration and food security, mainly in the poorest countries.

3.5.3 Life as it is

3.5.3.1 Implications for innovation policies
In view of trade restrictions and to make agricultural products more competitive, product differentiation is needed based on innovation, but this is only presented as a strategy towards the end of this scenario.
     In view of the heterogeneity of the region, R&D must also focus on increasing efficiency, by reducing production costs and increasing productivity, or both, and on producing low-cost foods for domestic consumers and low-income countries.
     Moreover, it is important to meet the technological needs related to improvements in the quality of products produced by the most vulnerable groups in response to the more exacting demands of better educated consumers.
     Research is needed to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change and to prevent and manage pests and diseases, while preventing environmental deterioration, so that production efficiency and productivity will not decline. Since the scenario is based on the current reality, the South
American countries are the ones with the greatest capacity to deal with these impacts in this area and in the future.
    Countries that have the greatest capacity to generate knowledge today—in South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile; and in the Andes: Venezuela; in Central America: Mexico and Panama; and in the Caribbean: Cuba, Trinidad and Tobago—also are most likely to generate the knowledge demanded by this scenario.