area of social development and environmental sustainability.
Application of traditional knowledge improves towards
the end of this scenario
The Adapting Mosaic presents a world in which immense
institutional changes occur, including asymmetries of
power among social stakeholders, paradigms for exploration
of natural resources, generation of socio-political agreements,
and distribution of wealth among social segments.
All of these key elements for social and economic life are
transformed. It is also a fragmented world, as in the Order
from Strength scenario, but this fragmentation is not oriented
towards domination of a fragment—or a region or
river basin—over others. Each fragment seeks its own ways
and places to deal with the environment, to reduce the impact
on it. This entire transformation generates major crises
and difficulties, affecting even urban food security in this
scenario. There is also duplication of efforts, with a weak
capacity to learn from imitation in many fragments, and
delays in arriving at solutions. But there are also improvements
in some indicators, and especially in the environmental
impact. According to this scenario, formal AKST systems
are initially viewed with distrust, but they clearly make an
important contribution to achieving the objectives pursued
by social groups, and so this distrust diminishes towards
the end of the period. The empowerment of all of the more
vulnerable social groups enhances the value of traditional
knowledge, which is used in the Adapting Mosaic world.
The TechnoGarden scenario depicts a world in which
countries are highly interconnected and motivated by a
strong concern for the environment—with a pro-active approach,
to prevent impacts on the environment. It is a world
in which the actual concept of agriculture is transformed
to include protection for environmental services. Environmental
problems are solved and prevented by incorporating
a high degree of technology. However, as in the Adapting
Mosaic, thereis also an interest in improving the quality
of life of all segments of society and AKST institutionalizes
this concern in its practices. Thus, new technologies are
adapted to the different social groups, but also to different
environmental conditions. Traditional knowledge is valued,
and is used and systematized to a great extent in this scenario.
Consequently, many sustainable development indicators
improve, although in this world an optimum solution
to the environmental problem is never found.
What are the implications of these scenarios for AKST
and sustainable development policies, that could prevent the
negative situations described in them, and what possibility
is there for facilitating such action and ensuring interaction
that would foster sustainable development? In the following section there is a brief presentation of
the implications for innovation policies and social development
policies in support of vulnerable social groups under
each scenario. It is important to point out that although
each scenario is described in the present tense, these scenarios
should not be regarded as predictions, but rather as
possible future situations.
The policy implications were devised on the basis of the
different scenarios, but also in consideration of the current
situation of vulnerability in each country with respect to the
different variables involved in them (this situation was described
at the beginning of the scenarios, in Table 3-3). The
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line of reasoning followed is that even though we cannot
accurately say that the most vulnerable countries today will
have the same degree of vulnerability in future, this comparison
makes it possible to indicate which countries have
a greater or lesser probability of overcoming risks or taking
advantage of future opportunities.
3.5.1 Global orchestration
3.5.1.1 Implications for innovation policies
The absence of barriers could lead to a reduction in product
prices, and so productive efficiency would be very important
in this scenario. However, competition is also based on
quality differentiation. According to this scenario, there is a
great diversification in the demands of end consumers, who,
like the major corporations that govern this scenario, are
generally relatively unconcerned about the environment.
This is a scenario where there is tremendous competition
among countries, based on the constant development of
new, differentiated products through the use of technology.
On the one hand, this involves risks, even for the countries
with the greatest current capacity to generate knowledge,
such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, because the
gap between these countries and the developed world widens,
especially in terms of investment in new technologies.
The demand for product differentiation cannot be met at
the level specified in the scenario, with the current capacity
of the LAC countries. To maintain this capacity at the
required levels, there would have to be a heavy investment
in R&D. For those countries that have a very limited capacity
to generate know-how today, it is important to make an
effort to achieve independence in generating know-how and
technology in this scenario.
There is also a greater risk of epidemics, of the effects
of climate change and of negative impacts on environmental
sustainability, in comparison with the Life as it is scenario,
for the reasons set forth below.
With regard to epidemics, the countries of Central
America and the Caribbean are more vulnerable (in view of
their current capacity to prevent known and newly emerging
pests). They could damage agriculture and human health, and
cause important losses. The research agenda should include
development of technologies to prevent and eliminate these
epidemics, or to find ways to adapt to or live with them.
Policies that guarantee inclusion of environmental problems
on the research agenda for the region—especially for
the megadiverse countries, such as Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia,
Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela—should
be implemented over time, and mechanisms to inform end
consumers and make them aware of the risks to the environment
involved in this scenario should be established.
Requirements pertaining to quality, traceability, and
safety of foods entail costs that may be too high for small
enterprises to bear. It is important to build policies and strategies
to guarantee access to low-cost technologies that enable
producers to meet these requirements.
3.5.1.2 Implications for sustainable development policies
Global Orchestration describes a world in which knowledge
and its constant accumulation is the key factor of development.
This involves a risk for more vulnerable segments of
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