growth in SSA and LAC, and 25% in CWANA, compared to 27, 21, and 7% under the reference world. This could lead to further forest conversion into agricultural use. At the same time, rapid expansion of the livestock population un­der AKST_high requires expansion of grazing areas in SSA and elsewhere, which could also contribute to accelerated deforestation.
     What are the implications of more aggressive produc­tion growth on food trade and food security? Under AKST_ high, SSA cannot meet the rapid increases in food demand through domestic production alone. As a result, imports of both cereals and meats increase compared to the refer­ence run, by 137% and 75%, respectively (Figure 5-34 and 5-41). Under AKST_high, ESAP would also increase its net import position for meats and cereals, while NAE would

strengthen its net export position for these commodities. Under AKST_low_neg, on the other hand, high food prices lead to depressed global food markets and reduced global trade in agricultural commodities.
     Water scarcity is expected to increase considerably in the AKST_low_neg variant as a result of a sharp degrada­tion of irrigation efficiency. The irrigation water supply reli­ability index therefore drops sharply (Table 5-19).
     Sharp increases in international food prices as a result of the AKST_low and combined variants (Table 5-18) de­press demand for food and reduce availability of calories (Figure 5-36). In the most adverse, AKST_low_neg variant, average daily kilocalorie availability per capita declines by 1,100 calories in sub-Saharan Africa, pushing the region be­low the generally accepted minimum level of 2,000 calories