modeling projections, 316-317, 317,318, 319; molecular genetics, 166, 166; numbers with varying scenarios, 298; overgrazing, 153, 154, 176; overview, 22-23; policy needs/options, 448; poor people, 195, 195; sustainability, 391; traditional livestock breed losses, 520; transgenic livestock, 168, 168; unregulated grazing effects, 206; vegetarianism increase and, 343—345, 346, 347; waste impacts, 10, 24, 160, 160; water pollution and, 10, 24, 154, 160, 160; water resources management, 404^105, 406. See also Breeding options/livestock; Meat; Pas-toralism; SLAM model Livestock Revolution, 155 Livestock Spatial Location-Allocation Model. See SLAM model Localization vs. globalization, 147, 224-225, 224 Local knowledge. See Traditional/local knowledge Local seeds movement, 78 Low-External Input Sustainable Agriculture (LEISA): description, 175, 175; innovation needs, 284—385. See also Organic agricul­ture LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry ) activities, 191, 191
M
MA. See Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Malaria, 409 Malnutrition: child malnutrition, 1 6, 31-32, 33, 33, 196, 210, 210; disease and, 15; hygiene and, 14—15; micronutrient deficien­cies, 110, 197, 197, 210, 210, 348, 522; permanent effects of, 31; populations with insufficient food calories, 32, 32, 146; poverty and, 33; prevalence, 223; protein energy malnutrition trends, 109-110; sanitation and, 14-15; trends in, 109, 146, 308, 349; under nutrition effects, 196, 196; water quality and, 14, 15. See also Hunger; Nutrition security Malnutrition reduction: AKST impacts, 196, 196, 339, 340; breeding options/plants, 407-408; changes with increased veg­etarianism/integrated nutrient management agriculture, 345, 348; child malnutrition decline, 322, 323, 340, 345, 348, 355; on-farm reduction, 407-408; policies and, 349; research needs for, 408^09 Marginal environments: breeding for, 161, 161; Modern Varieties, 156-157, 156 Marginalized groups. See Inequity, social Marine biomass models: overview, 312-313. See also EcoOcean model Marker assisted breeding (MAB), 165 Marker assisted selection (MAS), 165, 393 Market-chain analysis, 390 Market development: AKST impact enhance­ment, 390-391. See also Trade/market policy options for developing countries Market Matters, Inc., 86 Mark of origin marketing, 461 MASIPAG, 77 Maximum Residue Levels (MRL) regulations, 103, 105 McKnight Foundation, 94

MDGs. See Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Meat: demand/trends, 11, 22-23, 32, 149, 149, 197, 197, 296, 297, 308, 316-317, 31 7, 318, 319; prices, 320, 320 Meat production: changes with increased veg­etarianism/integrated nutrient management agriculture, 343-345, 346, 347, 348; projec­tions, 320; trade policies and, 332, 332, 333; trends, 7. See also Livestock production Meat trade: AKST effects, 339; modeling out­comes, 320, 320; trade policies and, 333 Mechanization effects, 152, 152 Mediterranean greenhouse agrosystem, 385 Mekong River Commission, 82 Mendelian genetics, 88, 89,117 Microfinance initiatives, 202, 202, 460 Microwave imaging, 414 Migration/migrants: ICT effects, 309; liveli­hoods and, 203, 203; overview, 27; popula­tion size/composition and, 262; remittances, 27, 29, 203, 203, 309; statistics, 262 Milk demand/trends, 308, 318 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): goals description, 4; IAASTD and, 4, 5; indica­tors, 49 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA): agri­culture change drivers, 270, 271; agriculture role, 20; IAASTD and, 4; indicators, 49; natural resources availability, 36; research for, 71; TechnoGarden scenario, 314; tech­nological risks, 74 Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) model, 79 Mixed cropping benefits, 177-181, 177-181 Mobile telephony, 69 Modeling: AKST model preferences, 314; com­putable general equilibrium (CGE) models, 310, 312; integrated assessment models (IAMs), 311—312; interactions of models, 313-314, 313; marine biomass models, 312-313; overview of quantitative tools, 31 1; policy experiments use, 314. See also Future of agriculture/AKST assessment; specific models Modeling inputs: agricultural productivity, 314; climate change, 316; economic growth, 314, 315; economic growth by region, 315; energy use/production, 316; nonagricultural productivity, 314—315; population growth, 314, 315; population growth by region, 315; trade, 315; water needs, 315-316 Modeling outcomes: beef prices, 320, 320; beef production, 316, 318; bioenergy use/effects, 327-328, 329; cereal availability, 316, 317, 317, 318, 319; cereal production growth sources, 319; cereal trade, 320, 320; China cereal production, 321; China compara­tive advantage, 321; China crop produc­tion, 321; China imports, 321-322; China population by income group, 322; climate change, 327, 327, 330, 416; daily calorie availability, 320, 322, 323; energy produc­tion/use, 326-327, 327; fisheries, 322-324, 323; food availability by food type/region, 318; food prices, 320, 320; food security, 320, 322; food trade, 320, 320; forests, 328—329, 330; grazing intensities by region,

319-320, 319; land use change, 327-328, 328, 329; meat prices, 320, 320; meat trade, 320, 320; pork prices, 320, 320; pork pro­duction, 317, 318, 319; poultry prices, 320, 320; poultry production, 317, 318, 319; sheep/goats prices, 320, 320; sheep/goats production, 316-317, 318, 319; sources of food production growth, 317, 319-320, 319; terrestrial biodiversity loss, 329, 330; water availability, 317, 324, 326; water consump­tive use, 324, 325; water scarcity, 317 Modern Varieties: access, 156, 156, 158, 158; effects, 151, 151, 156-157, 156, 157; mar­ginal environments, 156—157, 156; rice, 156, 157, 157; Traditional Varieties and, 157; wheat, 156, 157 Monocultures: rice-wheat systems in Indo-Gangetic Plain, 21, 154; risks with, 10, 35; soil degradation, 21; structural adjustment policies and, 220, 220; water pollution, 21 Monsanto, 94 Multifunctionality of agriculture: computer-simulated modeling of, 62; debate on, 61-62; description, 2, 6, 61, 62, 146, 220, 220; globalized productivism vs. land stew­ardship, 221, 221; as goal, 220, 220; policy and, 220, 220; rural territories, 220, 220; small-scale farms and, 386 Mycorrhizas, 176, 176 Mycotoxins, 14-15
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Nanotechnology: applications, 415; concerns, 415, 467 National Agricultural Research Institute (NARI) model, 79 National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS), 78, 96 National innovation system (NIS), 527 National Market Education Programme, 461 National Seed Storage Laboratory (NSSI), 89 National Varietal Release Procedures, 97 Natural gas use, 326, 327 Natural resources: access effects, 35-36, 200, 200; agricultural yield intensification vs. area expansion, 150, 299; as agriculture change driver, 277—281; agriculture rela­tionship, 443; availability, 36; "bundle of rights," 480; common property, 479^181, 480; definition/description, 36; drivers of degradation/depletion, 36; dynamics, 36; extraction difficulty effects, 35—36; future conflicts over, 277; importance summary, 3, 35; poverty-induced decisions, 36; preserva­tion, 150; rights systems, 479^81, 480; scarcity in future, 308; sustainability and, 35, 36, 37, 147, 150, 150, 222, 308, 355; vulnerability, 36—37. See also Environmen­tal services; Environment and agriculture; specific resources Natural resources management: AKST impact enhancement, 36, 399^107; AKST options/ gaps, 381; community approach, 201, 201, 205-206, 205; gender issues, 45^6; by lo­cal institutions, 206, 206; overview, 37-43, 150; participatory approaches, 201, 201, 204, 204, 415^16; women and, 45^6