Table 4-7. Major uncertainties and likely impacts in the ESAP region.
Key Uncertainties |
Drivers of change directly affected |
Implications for agriculture, food systems, products and services |
Implications for development and sustainability goals in the ESAP region |
Climate change1 Rise in: sea level temperature precipitation (2015-2075) |
Demographic changes Economic growth Agricultural growth Trade Investment |
• Resurgence of tropical diseases
• High morbidity rates
• Reduced labor availability
• Unpredictable employment opportunities
• Factor productivity declines
• Food prices increase
• Unstable markets
• Declining crop productivity
• Cost of production increase
• Animal and crop diseases increase
• Preservation and storage crucial
• Deciduous forests incapable of regeneration
• Desertification increases
• Unpredictable production estimates, quality standards, etc.
• Futures markets collapse
• Higher market regulation with increasing loopholes
• Capital diverted to survival (food, health)
• Returns to investment decline |
• Increase in poverty, hunger and malnutrition
• Inequality, civil strife increase
• Economic growth unsustainable
• Natural resource degradation
• S&T becomes emergency driven and legitimacy falls
• Governance and decision-making become more centralized
• End of capitalism2 |
Regional conflicts (water/energy) (2015-2030) |
Water Energy Trade Economic growth |
• Irrigation water pricing
• Production costs increase
• Urbanization slows
• Off-shore fishing collapses
• Migration increases
• China and India—efforts to contain domestic inequities
• India—global collaboration for basic needs
• Nuclear energy increases
• Hydel power collapse
• Non-conventional energy increases
• Gains in off shore oil gas
• Energy prices soar
• Trade declines—tariffs increase
• Regional cooperation collapses
• GDP and agricultural growth declines
• Public investment in maintenance/ compensation
• Private capital shifts to EU/LAC/ Africa |
• Water conflicts— worsening law and order
• Hunger and food crisis severe—global aid resolves some of it
• Limited employment
• Gender relationships, female labor options worsen
• Economic development grinds to a halt
• Investments in water/ energy saving, construction, agricultural and industrial production
• South Asian trade blocks collapse—China or China + Australia dominate East Asian trade
• China regional leader
• Civil liberties curtailed |
Global conflicts (2020-2030) |
Fiscal / Political stability Globalization |
• China withdraws investments in the USA
• USA3 attempts to contain Chinese growth
• ESAP divided—Chinese vs. US allies
• Collapse of WTO
• EU vs. USA—sub-regional trade blocks
• Labour/capital mobility constrained
• Global trade declines
• Markets/ investments shift to ESAP and LAC
• Regional and sub-regional instability
• Regulations increase |
• USA and EU unemployment increase
• Worst global economic depression
• Economic growth limited to some pockets
• China dominates ESAP
• Intra-regional alliances increases
• Global defense expenses escalate |