health in NAE and at international levels. However, it would probably contribute little to equity and sustainable economic development.
• Increased government intervention could lead to "ecosystem-oriented AKST" with strong public sector input and interventions to internalize environmental externalities through regulations, taxation, subsidies and international standards. In that scenario, the public sector would invest in centralized, coordinated innovation systems, with few centers of excellence. Education would be a priority and solutions would probably be knowledge-intensive, high-tech and precision oriented. "Ecosystem-oriented AKST" could make a major contribution to improving environmental sustainability through knowledge-intensive technologies that use resources efficiently and to sustaining economic development by investing human and financial capital in the development of green technologies. It could have the potential to level off global imparities. However, little emphasis on social viewpoints might lead to shortcomings regarding issues such as equity and enhanced livelihoods.
• Cross-sectoral public-private governance platforms with emphasis on regional and local decision making along with the subsidiary principle and bottom-up approaches could lead to "local-learning AKST" system. Food system actors and both rural and urban regions would participate in interactive knowledge networks that are decentralized and regionally diversified. Externalities would be internalized through direct response and locally visible impacts of AKST, but local standards would also be developed. "Local-learning AKST" could successfully contribute to the goals of enhancing livelihoods, equity and social capital and to environmental sustainability, especially within the regions. Nutrition and human health would be improved through knowledge-based, safe local diets and a reduction in meat consumption. Balanced urban-rural regional economic development would be promoted by keeping up the added value in the region. Hunger and poverty in other regions would not be a high priority.
• A "local food-supply led AKST" system could arise if research efforts were not coordinated and if budget cuts were took place. "Local food-supply led AKST" is a plausible future which would not contribute to development and sustainability goals.
5.1 Context
Agricultural systems and land use are changing as a consequence of changes in demography, world trade, climate, diets, political unions (e.g., enlargement of the European Union) and technology. The degree and impact of these variations are largely unknown. Although the future is unpredictable, some developments can be foreseen and alternatives explored. This chapter focuses on trends and uncertainties related to the futures of the main drivers of agricultural research and innovation systems and agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST).
5.1.1 Problem statement
The future of the agricultural research and innovation systems in North America and Europe is not certain, and cur- |
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rent systems may be revised or new ones built. There are several plausible futures, some more desirable than others. Each of them depends on the decisions and actions of today's leaders. Some of the appealing futures appear plausible and feasible and may help decision makers choose strategies to reach those futures. Other futures, although desirable, are utopic and may be of less value for planning the future.
Forecasting and foresight are methods to think about options for the future. They can have a national, a regional or a sectoral focus. They can be based on scientific panels, the Delphi method, scenario development, investigative surveys, working groups or scientific seminars. Foresight activities can focus on the result (e.g., projections or scenarios) or on the process (Godet, 1977; Irvine and Martin, 1984, 1989; Hatem, 1993; Martin, 1995; de Jouvenel, 2004; de Lattre-Gasquet, 2006). Emphasizing the process can help to build strategic capabilities and to inform research and innovation policies ("embedded foresight") (Kulhmann et al., 1999).
Identifying appropriate drivers is the first step in forecast/foresight activities. As defined in chapter 1, a "driver" is any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem. Drivers are linked to decision making, as many of the drivers can be influenced by policy choices. A "direct driver" unequivocally influences agricultural production and services and can therefore be identified and measured with differing degrees of accuracy. An "indirect driver" operates more diffusely, often by altering one or more direct drivers, and its influence is established by understanding its effect on a direct driver. The tendential development of each driver must be presented, and curves and potential breaks that could block the tendential development should be explored (de Jouvenel, 2004). In this chapter, uncertainties about the futures have been raised in the form of questions, and no hypotheses about future development have been made.
As described in chapter 1, AKST is knowledge, science and technology pertaining to agriculture. It is a subset of science and technology, located at the intersection of the agricultural system and the knowledge, science and technology system. The futures of AKST depend on the futures of agriculture, the futures of KST, and have their own dynamic. This chapter is built around four questions:
• What are the key drivers for knowledge, science and technology (KST), their major uncertainties and consequences for AKST? (see 5.3)
• What are the key drivers for agriculture, their major uncertainties and consequences for AKST? (see 5.4)
• What are the key drivers for agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) and agricultural research and innovation systems and their major uncertainties? (see 5.5)
• What are some future normative AKST systems and their potential contributions to sustainable development goals? (see 5.6)
For each driver, the questions show that the future is uncertain. Each driver also points to fields where AKST needs to be developed or expanded.
The plausible futures comprise a number of goals for |