Model component

Uncertainty

Model structure

•   Based on partial equilibrium theory (equilibrium between demand and supply of all commodities and production factors)
•   One country model (international prices are exogenous)

Parameters

Input parameters:
•   Some household data on production and consumption may not be consistent with national and provincial demand and supply functions
•   Elasticities underlying the national and provincial demand and supply functions
•   International commodity prices
•   Drivers
Output parameters:
•   Annual levels of food and agricultural production, stock changes, food and other demands, imports and exports, and domestic prices at national level
•   Annual levels of food and agricultural production, food and other demands at provincial and household level

Driving force

Economic and demographic drivers:
•   Per capita rural and urban income
•   Population growth and urbanization
Technological drivers:
•   Yield response with respect to research investment, irrigation, and others
•   Livestock feed rations
Policy drivers:
•   Cultivated land expansion/control
•   Public investment (research, irrigation, environmental conservation, etc.)
•   Trade policy
•   Others

Initial condition

Baseline: Three-year average centered on 2001 of all input parameters and assumptions for driving forces

Model operation

Visual C++ programming language