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346 | IAASTD Global Report

Table 5-23. Changes to average income demand elasticities for meat and vegetarian foods by IAASTD region under low growth in meat demand variant.

 

 

 

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Meat

Baseline

CWANA

0.7223

0.6673

0.6095

0.5576

0.5147

0.4806

 

ESAP

0.5538

0.5145

0.4809

0.4507

0.4288

0.4169

 

LAC

0.5679

0.5129

0.4582

0.4023

0.3468

0.2914

 

NAE

0.2761

0.2402

0.2054

0.1732

0.1438

0.1161

 

SSA

0.8121

0.7966

0.7808

0.7634

0.7443

0.7221

 

Low Meat

CWANA

0.7223

0.6554

0.5867

0.5253

0.4755

0.4375

Demand

ESAP

0.5538

0.4953

0.4460

0.4064

0.3853

0.3844

 

LAC

0.5679

0.5046

0.4416

0.3781

0.3164

0.2562

 

NAE

0.2761

0.2178

0.1672

0.1227

0.0858

0.0533

 

SSA

0.8121

0.7931

0.7736

0.7529

0.7305

0.7044

Vegetarian Foods

Baseline

CWANA

0.2486

0.2299

0.2156

0.2063

0.2021

0.2025

 

ESAP

0.2243

0.2003

0.1847

0.1660

0.1438

0.1222

 

LAC

0.1579

0.1421

0.1343

0.1322

0.1311

0.1324

 

NAE

0.2733

0.2547

0.2387

0.2235

0.2079

0.1930

 

SSA

0.3359

0.2775

0.2364

0.2027

0.1790

0.1751

 

Low Meat

CWANA

0.2486

0.2337

0.2223

0.2149

0.2120

0.2134

Demand

ESAP

0.2243

0.2138

0.2098

0.2046

0.1954

0.1848

 

LAC

0.1579

0.1436

0.1367

0.1345

0.1330

0.1337

 

NAE

0.2733

0.2687

0.2644

0.2599

0.2539

0.2477

 

SSA

0.3359

0.2834

0.2473

0.2164

0.1941

0.1887

Source: IFPRI IMPACT model simulations.

soil nutrients and improve labor efficiencies will be rather important.

5.5. Emerging Issues that Influence the Future

5.5.1 Interface of human, animal, and plant health

5.5.1.1 Future trends
Human, animal, and plant diseases associated with AKST will continue to be of importance to future populations, in­cluding more urbanized populations in low-income coun­tries. Two trends will be of particular importance—contin­ued emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases and the growing human health burdens of noncommunicable diseases.1
     Currently, 204 infectious diseases are considered to be emerging; 29 in livestock and 175 in humans (Taylor et al.,
1 Diseases and disabilities can be categorized into communicable diseases, maternal, and perinatal conditions, and nutritional defi­ciencies; noncommunicable diseases (primarily chronic diseases); and injuries.

 

2001). Of these, 75% are zoonotic (diseases transmitted be­tween animals and humans). The number of emerging plant, animal, and human diseases will increase in the future, with pathogens that infect more than one host species more likely to emerge than single-host species (Taylor et al., 2001). Fac­tors driving disease emergence include intensification of crop and livestock systems, economic factors (e.g., expansion of international trade), social factors (changing diets and life­styles) demographic factors (e.g., population growth), envi­ronmental factors (e.g., land use change and global climate change), and microbial evolution. Diseases will continue to emerge and reemerge; even as control activities successfully control one disease, another will appear. Most of the fac­tors that contributed to disease emergence will continue, if not intensify, in the twenty-first century (Institute of Medicine, 1992). The increase in disease emergence will impact both high- and low-income countries, with serious socioeconomic impacts when diseases spread widely within human or animal populations, or when they spill over from animal reservoirs to human hosts (Cleaveland et al., 2001).
     Emerging infectious diseases of crop plants pose a sig­nificant threat to agricultural productivity and, in cases of
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