Region

Irrigated water productivity

Crop water depletion

Irrigation water diversions

Trade

Kg/m3

% change

km3

% change

km3

% change

M ton

%of consumption

SSA

0.5

58%

1,379

29%

100

46%

-25

-12%

MENA

0.82

41%

272

7%

228

8%

-127

-61%

C Asia, E Europe

1.22

51%

773

0%

271

11%

66

22%

South Asia

0.79

62%

1,700

15%

1195

9%

2

0%

East Asia

1.16

45%

1,990

19%

601

16%

-97

-12%

Latin America

0.91

52%

1,361

52%

196

12%

18

6%

OECD

1.6

20%

1,021

4%

238

2%

151

26%

World

1.01

48%

8,515

20%

2,975

14%

490

15%

demand elasticities in industrialized countries and regions decline by 150% for meat products and 50% for nonmeat commodities compared to the reference run. In developing regions, the rates of decline are taken to be 110% and 90% of the baseline rates, for the meat and nonmeat commodi­ties, respectively.

5.4.6.2 Specification of the adoption of integrated nutri­ent management.
The rise of industrialized country agricultural practices that use integrated nutrient management follows on the speci­fication of the organic agriculture scenario in Halberg et al. (2006). This variant is specified purely as a supply-side adjustment in the industrialized world to yields of crops and livestock most easily converted to integrated nutrient management production techniques. Crops include maize, wheat, soybeans, other grains, and potatoes. Beef, dairy, and sheep/goat are the focus for livestock. The variant ad­justs the yield growth rates from 2005 to 2015 such that the agronomic yields for the specified commodities achieve

the differences from the baseline specified in Halberg et al. (2006) as laid out in Tables 5-24 and 5-25. The principal change from Halberg et al. (2006) in this implementation of widespread adoption of integrated nutrient management in agriculture is that the apex of the spread is achieved in 2015, which would cover roughly half of the area harvested or managed animal herds. This year marks a turnaround in the decline of average yields for these crops, and base­line yield growths from 2015 to 2050 are achievable due to technology investments and farming system adaptations. This specification is meant to be illustrative of the potential impacts of such developments but it is an optimistic repre­sentation of such a large-scale shift to organic production.
     The commodity price impacts of these two alternative outcomes compared to the reference case is fairly straight­forward. In a future of increased vegetarianism, the income demand elasticities are much lower for meats and much higher for nonmeat foods than in the reference case. Prices will directly follow the changes in income demand elastici­ties with meat prices falling and nonmeat food prices in-