Box 6-1. Contribution of new complex systems science to elucidate agricultural systems
The science of complex systems makes four main contributions:
1. A better understanding of the components of the system and their interactions
2. A better control of the development of dynamic complex sociotechnical systems, e.g., new processes and materials, multi-site factory production and supply chain dynamics
3. A better understanding of the complex environment in which engineered systems exist, e.g., ecology, regulation, ethics, markets and
4. A better understanding of the design, engineering and management process that is often itself a creative, multilevel, complex human system, capable of great successes but inherently liable to spectacular failures (Bourgine and Johnson, 2005).
For these reasons a major effort is required in developing complex system science and education applied to agriculture. Specifically AKST needs to be mobilized for:
• Developing a meaningful knowledge representation and modeling of an agricultural system as a whole;
• Identifying and storing relevant information as well as developing methods to aggregate this information through the establishment of meaningful indicators regarding the functioning of the whole agricultural system; and
• Building infrastructure to facilitate the storage of information from complex agricultural systems approach.
vkin et al., 2004; Soussana et al., 2004). The conversion of arable lands to grasslands and afforestation is one of the important local options. Their net effect on GHG emissions in variable environments could be determined through additional research (Dupouey et al., 2006);
• analyze the effect of extreme heat or cold episodes on carbon accumulation. The long-term benefits of these changes and management systems could be further evaluated;
• manipulate livestock diet to reduce nitrogen losses from animals and/or reduce pH of excreta and to reduce methane emissions by ruminants (Lassey, 2005);
• use husbandry methods, management techniques and novel varieties to minimize the inputs of energy, synthetic fertilizers and agrochemicals on which present industrialized farming methods depend;
• reduce energy use via reduced use of fossil fuels in farming and food processing; and
• conduct high quality whole system studies and develop easy to use decision systems to ensure advantages in one area do not have ill effects in other areas (Seguin et al., 2005). |
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6.2.1.2 Reduce agriculture's vulnerability to climate change
A change in the climate that has been witnessed particularly over the past 50 years is likely to be reinforced in the next five decades. Some of the most prominent consequences of this change have been in the following areas: acceleration of several physiological processes accompanied by a greater demand in water and nitrogen, variations in rainfall (frequency and quantity), change in the radiative balance, increase in the frequency of extreme episodes and changes in biotic stress.
The geographic distribution of agricultural production within and outside NAE is likely to change considerably due to climate changes for the next 50 or 100 years, even if uncertainties remain in the timing and geographic details of these effects. Two strategies that could be pursued to address these uncertainties are (1) improving the ability to predict future effects of climate change and (2) adapting food production system to minimize adverse effects on food supply and avoid exacerbating hunger.
Improving capacity to predict future effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of agriculture and overall food production in NAE and in other regions
One of the major challenges is to better understand better the consequences of climate change where there are still considerable uncertainties. Although there is a consensus regarding an elevation of the temperature or an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, there is less certainty regarding other effects including change in the nature and timing of biotic stress due to the phenological shift of the host plant, outbreaks of new parasites and ways of combating them, variation in the rainfall, increased frequency of extreme episodes (e.g., summer of 2003 in Europe). Taking into account these uncertainties (rainfalls, biotic stress, political and economic choices, etc.) as well as short and long-term effects could help in the understanding of such complex questions and dealing with them. In addition, collecting serial data through appropriate long-term observations could facilitate the construction and validation of previous models and shed more light on these unanswered questions. (Seguin et al., 2006)
Reconfiguring NAE production areas to adapt and optimize available space and resources in new "environments"
Geographic shift in crop and forest production. Many studies suggest that rising temperatures could result in a shifting of crops and forests towards the north where temperatures in the future will most probably be equivalent to current temperatures in the south (Olesen and Bindi, 2002). In Europe, for example, cereals in Finland will shift 100-150 km towards the pole for each 1°C rise in temperature (IPCC, 2001). Continental and mountain forests are expected to occupy less surface area in the future compared to their present distribution as they are sensitive to high temperatures and extreme drought conditions.
The NAE region could anticipate some of these profound changes in the geographic organization and utili- |