stable (50%). There is probably no new stock resource, un-derexploited  or  unexploited,  anymore.  Overexploitation has been controlled more quickly in zones exploited by de­veloped countries (Northern Atlantic, Northern Pacific) but now, in varying degrees, affects all the oceans. The North­western Atlantic fisheries have experienced one of the most spectacular collapses because of cod stocks, which had been fished for five centuries. Since the moratorium on cod fish­ing in 1993 in Canada, stocks have not been replenished. The commercial fisheries of the Northeast Atlantic are fully exploited, overexploited or depleted. If the total captures are seemingly stable, it is because of the transfer of fishing from the traditional and high trophic species (cod, haddock) towards species of lesser value (blue whiting, sandeel) or temporarily productive stocks threatened with depletion in the short term (deep-sea species).

5.4.5.2 Uncertainties of the future
While progress has been made in developing new tech­nologies and new institutions and in creating awareness of environmental problems, the outlook today on natural resources is no better than in the early 1970s. There are a number of uncertainties involved concerning the future availability and quality of natural resources, land use and environment in NAE, some of them arising from or being aggravated by global trends such as trade liberalization and climatic change. Among the major factors influencing natu­ral resource availability and land management in NAE is the rise in the consumption for food, feed, fiber and fuel in and outside the region. How will demand for these goods develop in the next decades, and what can and will the NAE supply in order to meet these demands? Will growth in pro­duction continue as in the past?
•     How will the demographic and economic development within the different regions of NAE affect the severity of the different claims on land, water and other natural resources and the competition between agriculture and other land uses?
•     More specifically, related to the supply of food and non­food by agriculture, is the question of the future avail­ability of water, especially in the face of climatic change. How will water availability develop, and to what extent will it restrict agricultural production and/or contribute to environmental degradation? How polluted will water be and what kind of efforts will be made to depollute, desalinize and reuse such water?
•     How much suitable agricultural land will be shifted to other land uses? Will less suitable lands be cultivated? What effects will that have on the use of agrochemicals, biodiversity and environmental risks?
•     Within agriculture, what will be the share of biofuel crop cultivation in the future, and what implications will the expansion of biofuel crops have on the supply of other agricultural products and on natural resource quality in the different sub-regions of NAE?
•     How will the required goods be produced, and how will that affect the quality of water, soil, air and land use?
•     What gains in efficiency and increases in water, land, en­ergy and labor for agriculture would be needed to avoid jeopardizing future environmental sustainability? What gains could be achieved by new, improved production

technologies and better water resources management? Can such knowledge be generated and be adequately disseminated and implemented in a timely manner? Will policy interventions be sufficient to overcome expected shortages?
•     Will there be crops that require fewer fertilizers and other agrochemicals and that also require less water resources, obtained as a result of a fuller understand­ing of factors regulating nitrate and phosphate utiliza­tion, water use efficiency and their impact on natural resources?
•     What will happen to natural resource quality if the vi­ability of rural areas in NAE declines?
•     Will current trends towards more consumer concern for environment and health, greater demand for food safety (labeling and traceability), organic products, less meat and more convenient foods continue? What will be the implications for natural resource use, land use practices and environmental quality?
•     In order to improve the sustainability of coastal capture fisheries and increase their productivity, will research be carried out on efficient management systems, taking into ac­count the ecosystem and improved fishing technologies?
•     Will NAE develop its aquaculture production? Will there be more research on the aquatic environment for aquaculture?

Agricultural land use has the potential to damage or destroy the natural resource base and in so doing undermine future needs and development. It also has the potential to conserve agricultural landscapes. Most often, it focuses on short-term economic gains, disregarding long-term impacts and needs and thus contributing to environmental degradation. Clearly part of the solution lies in a change in demands from society, e.g., via changes in dietary preferences and lifestyle, but it also devolves to the agricultural sector to assume re­sponsibility and find ways to reduce the negative environ­mental impacts by developing appropriate AKST.

5.4.5.3 Consequences for AKST
Agriculture is a major user of land and water resources and is in competition with other users for these limited resources. The sustainable development challenges for agriculture are strongly related to this competition and the role agriculture has in rural development. The pleas made 15 years ago and expressed in Agenda 21 are also valid for today: "Major adjustments are needed in agricultural, environmental and macroeconomic policy, at both national and international levels, in developed as well as developing countries, to cre­ate the conditions for sustainable agriculture and rural de­velopment" (UN, 1993).
     The concepts of production ecology are very helpful in structuring the interrelationships between agriculture, natural resources and environmental quality (Van Ittersum and Rabbinge, 1997). Cropping activities, for instance, are defined by the mix of inputs to produce given target yields. The level of undesired outputs (i.e., nitrate leaching, pesti­cide leaching, or unproductive evaporation) associated with a given target yield will critically depend on the production technology (i.e., the various resource management practices and their use efficiencies) applied. Nutrients, pesticide and