centrated retail sector holding significant and increasing market power vis-à-vis its suppliers.

These trends could be undermined if consumers in North America and Europe adopted a "sustainable development" perspective, for example by reducing their demand for non-seasonal and non-local crops, meat and fish and adjusting food portions to human needs. A number of NGOs and local organizations are pushing in this direction, and some super­markets in the EU are also active in that direction. National and international regulations could also have an effect on food demand. Food processing companies are increasingly encouraged to reduce the portion of sugar and starch in their products. There is an increasing demand from consum­ers for labeling, traceability and other information. Media publish messages on diets. The Codex Alimentarius devel­ops quality food standards, consumer health guidelines, fair trade practices and internationally harmonious food stan­dards. Furthermore, society has become increasingly aware of environmental impacts and animal welfare associated with agriculture. This appears to be causing some changes in buying and consumption habits that may decisively influ­ence consumers' willingness to pay a premium on a product they may perceive as safer, produced in ethical conditions, or more beneficial.

5.4.1.2 Uncertainties of the future
Many uncertainties could greatly affect the food market­place of the future. This section provides a list for further discussion:
• Food demand at global and NAE levels.
-     Will food continue to be an instrument of cultural identity in many countries? Will food become com­pletely standardized?
-     Will NAE have to contribute to the changes in meat and cereal consumption that will take place in the other regions of the world?
-     How will the  consumption  of off-season crops evolve? How will the consumption of meat and fish evolve? If there are increases in meat and fish consumption, will the increased demand be met through increased local production  or imports? Can increased demand be met through "meat/fish" produced without animals?
-     What will be the changes in the consumption of pro­cessed (convenience) food? What will be the con­sumer attitudes towards preparing food at home?
-     In the past fifty years, there has been a decrease in the real prices of food. Will consumers be ready to pay a premium for "quality" products or will they continue to see the share of food decrease in the share of household expenditures?
-     In Eastern Europe, how fast will food diversifica­tion take place?
•     Health.
-     At the global, NAE and European level, will there be  coordination  and  harmonization  of interna­tional food standards? How strict will consumer protection be? Will human health be adequately protected?
-     In NAE, will governmental measures be sufficient

to make consumers aware of links between food and health? Will consumers demand foods tailored to specific health needs? Will consumers recognize and demand functional foods? What food safety measures will consumers demand? Will improved analytical methods increase the demand for organic foods or foods free of chemical residues? Will con­sumers pay a premium for these food services? Will increasingly aseptic foods reduce human immunity? Does increased hygiene increase the risk of resistant pathogens? How to strike a balance between neces­sary hygiene and excessive hygiene?
•     Food manufacturing, processing and distribution.
-     In NAE, will horizontal and vertical integration of the whole food industry continue? Will the develop­ment of niche markets influence the ongoing trend of integration? Will farmers be able to choose their production or will they become even more depen­dent on the food distribution and manufacturing industries? Will home delivery replace conventional food shopping? Will local distribution points be created for food ordered through the internet? Can the relationship between farmers and consumers be strengthened?

5.4.1.3 Consequences for AKST
To achieve nutritional security strategic choices have to be made in the economic and social domains (lifestyles) and in the domains of international and national food regulations and modes of distribution. As far as food consumption is concerned, as in other topics, AKST choices will not only be technical but will also be influenced by actors and their ide­ologies. The following illustrates the choices that will have to be made:
•     To produce safe high quality food, animal and plant ge­netic resources will need to be evaluated and preserved. Factors determining the shelf life of both fresh produce and processed food, or the stability of plant raw materi­als after harvest will also be important (ETP, 2005).
•     If functional food is developed, then there will be a need for analysis, measure and control, biotechnologies, bio­chemistry, biology, medicine.
•     To create food targeted at specific consumer groups or needs, the identification and characterization of the molecular structure of plant polymers, as well as the characterization of plant metabolites will be very useful, together with molecular breeding and transgenic ap­proaches. This will need an interdisciplinary approach that brings together plant scientists, physicians and nu­tritionists (ETP, 2005).
•     If the emphasis is on food quantity rather than food quality, genomics will be very important.
•     If the emphasis is on food quality, functional genomics and systems biology will need to be developed.
•     The rapid development of allergies will require the de­velopment of special research.
•     If transformation is a priority, microbiology will be use­ful to look at the nutritive qualities of food.
•     If a market-led, globalized world develops, food trace-ability, prevention of bioterrorism and agroterrorism and identification of sabotage will be very important.