|      The schema for generating knowledge, the process of
      social learning and the innovation in agriculture which, it
      is hoped, will produce the conditions for and viability of
      human development is characterized and influenced by a dynamic
      context in which development processes are the result
      of policies formulated and applied based on the objectives
      and promises of the socioeconomic development models. In
      order for the AKST system to have a positive impact on the
      changes, leading to improvements in the standards of living
      and quality of life, the system has to be sensitive to stimuli
      and indicators that point to the degrees and nature of the
      changes demanded for attaining the development and sustainability
      objectives, taking into account alternative future
      scenarios.Constructing scenarios is a methodology used to support
      the understanding of the future and decision-making
      on current policies and strategies. The scenarios offer a
      likely vision, distant in time, of the nature of complex phenomena
      and a model of how different sorts of phenomena
      will evolve (social, economic, environmental, technological)
      and interact. The use of scenarios makes it possible to manage
      the uncertainty that necessarily characterizes the future,
      depending on premises about the decisions of the social actors
      in relation to various macro variables.
 Accordingly, applying the conceptual framework proposed
      entails, first, characterizing the global and regional
      context in which both the AKST systems and the agricultural
      production systems are found and analyzing the recent
      history and current situation of Latin American agriculture
      with special emphasis on the performance of production
      systems. This assessment, along with an assessment of the
      AKST systems (Chapter 2) and an elaboration of plausible
      future scenarios (Chapter 3) will be an input for proposing
      a series of realistic options that may contribute to attaining
      the goals of reducing poverty, hunger and inequity, as
      well as attaining environmentally sustainable development
      (Chapters 4 and 5).
 1.2 Latin American and Caribbean AgriculturalProduction Systems
 Recognizing the structural heterogeneity and diversity of
      actors, cultures and knowledge of Latin American agriculture
      both regionally and subregionally, it was decided to
      consider three agricultural systems for the purposes of this
 evaluation:
 1. Traditional/indigenous (includes peasant);
 2. Conventional/productivist;
 3. Agroecological.
       The importance of each of these systems varies not only
      among subregions, but also within each subregion and even
      within each country. The performance and impacts of three
      principal agricultural systems are presented in 1.7 (Table
      1-1).The traditional/indigenous system is a family agricultural
      system, primarily involving family consumption, under
      which one can distinguish the ethnic systems constituted
      by indigenous and Afro-descendant communities linked to
      the territory and the peasant systems. It is based on local/
      ancestral knowledge and is not very well articulated to the
    market for inputs and products, though today many peas-
 |  | peasants
      market part of their production. In general, this system
      is high in agrobiodiversity, outside inputs are used to a limited
      extent, if at all and labor is drawn from the family (Altieri,
      1999; Toledo, 2005). The cosmovision of indigenous
      communities assumes a relationship with natural resources
      that goes beyond an economic-extractive activity: it implies
      an ecological-cultural-spiritual vision linked to the territory.
      (For the example of the Andean world view, see Figure 1-3.)
      This system stands out for sustainability with respect to the
      environment and energetic balance, with variable levels of
      production (Barrera-Bassols and Toledo, 2005). In several
      regions traditional/indigenous agriculture is displaced to
      marginal lands and much of the knowledge that undergirds
      it is being lost (David et al., 2001; Deere, 2005). In these
      conditions one finds low yields. In most countries of the
      region, governmental/institutional support has not fostered
      the strengthening of this system.At the other end of the spectrum one finds the conventional/
      productivist system, also called the “industrial
      system.” This system is characterized by a high degree of
      mechanization, monocultures and the use of external inputs,
      such as synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, as well as contract
      labor. It is based on technological knowledge and is
      highly articulated to the market and integrated to productive
      chains. This system has been supported by development
      models and it has benefited from support systems such as
      credit and technological capital (Chapter 2). Its prominence
      in the national and international markets makes the conventional/
      productivist system stand out for high levels of productivity
      and competitiveness. Nonetheless, it gives rise to
      significant negative externalities in terms of environmental,
      social and cultural costs (see 1.7).
 As the environmental and human costs of conventional
      production have increased, the agroecological system is becoming
      more important. It is based on the knowledge of
      agroecology stemming from the interaction between scientific
      and traditional knowledge and aimed at reducing the
      negative impacts of the conventional systems through productive
      diversification and the use of ecologically-friendly
      technologies. This system is characterized by the search for
      sustainability in social, economic, cultural and environmental
      terms; scant articulation in productive chains; and a
      strong link to the market for differentiated products, especially
      organic products. The systems described are expressed
      in the subregions with differentiated nuances and through
      mixed forms or particular combinations.
  1.3 RegionalizationLatin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is a very extensive
      and varied geographic region. It extends from Baja California
      (32 1/2° N) to Tierra del Fuego (55° S) and has a total
      of 2.050 billion ha (including internal bodies of water) in
      45 countries with 569 million inhabitants. Given its great
      range of longitudes and altitudes, as well as its great biodiversity,
      LAC has a wide diversity of ecosystems including
      moist tropical jungles, dry forests, conifer forests, temperate
      forests, tropical savannahs, temperate savannahs, páramos
      and desert environments. To facilitate the analysis and characterization
      of the region in this evaluation we will refer to
      large geographic zones as follows: Southern Cone Andean
    Region, Central America, Mexico and the Caribbean (Table
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