Next, the relationships among these variables were studied with the help of a crossed impact matrix. This matrix makes it possible to analyze the direct relationships between each pair of variables in terms of intensity, type, and direction of the interaction. Based on that analysis, the model of relations shown in Figure 3-2 was built.

On the basis of this model, a selection was made of the variables considered as the critical factors for understanding the future in the scenarios. These variables are: the demands for and focus or focal point of the R&D; technologies adapted to the agricultural production systems; incorporation of knowledge into agricultural production systems; available resources for agricultural production systems, performance of agricultural production systems; income inequality; social inequality; urban food security; and, environmental sustainability in agriculture. These last four critical factors describe the results of the interactions between the context and the two (R&D and production) systems of interest. For each of the critical factors, submodels were prepared, that show the direct relationships with other variables based on the model presented in Figure 3-2. Examples of submodels for the four macrovariables of results (income inequality, social inequality, urban food security, and environmental sustainability in agriculture) are shown in Figures 3-3 to 3-6.

      The scenarios were designed on the basis of these models, using the morphological analysis matrix tool. It takes into account the plausible situation of the variables for the time horizon under analysis. Then, the situation—considered as the hypothetical future development of each variable—is linked to the themes of the five scenarios: (1) Global Orchestration; (2) Order from Strength; (3) Adapting Mosaic; (4) TechnoGarden; and (5) Life as it is.

The first four scenarios follow the Millennium Scenarios (Carpenter et al., 2005), and take the same name and the broader macro-context or the main premises used to analyze the relationships between the variables of the context closest to Latin America and the Caribbean and the variables that define the agricultural knowledge, science and technology systems and the agricultural production systems in the region. In these scenarios, the interaction of two macrovariables (integration among countries and action related to environmental services) defines the major forces that determine the entire scenario. Table 3-2 presents these premises, both for the themes taken from the millennium scenarios and for the “business as usual” scenario.

The link between themes and descriptions of situations resulted in the matrix of scenarios and in the first version of the scenarios themselves for two time periods: 2007-