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Outlook on Agricultural Changes and Its Drivers | 301

ers of the agricultural system and many of these are likely to change significantly within the decades. Though the time horizon for research may be reduced in the future, there is now and likely to be in the future a significant lag between the recognition of development and sustainability goals and the time required for AKST to contribute to addressing those goals. Frameworks that consider important drivers of change and their interlinkages can be used to initially explore and at least partially assess the likely consequences of develop­ing particular technologies. Additionally, the impact of these technologies can be considered when projecting future out­comes, thus giving policy makers and others the opportu­nity to explore and assess different approaches to AKST. However, no model provides a full description of potential changes in agriculture and AKST in the coming decades.

 

While a number of modelling paradigms exist, most rep­resent agriculture primarily from a particular disciplinary perspective. Given its importance and complexity, there is a clear need for a forward looking assessment that is focused on agriculture and can consider the impact of AKST. There are two main approaches in the literature with respect to future outlooks: (1) the use of multiple scenarios and (2) the use of one central projection. The first handles uncertainties better, but is more complex and time consuming. To date, agricultural assessments use one central projection whereas most environmental assessments use multiple scenarios. The use of multiple models in assessments can help explore and understand sensitivities and uncertainties. Linking different types of models can result in a more comprehensive explora­tion of important issues.

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