izers and pesticides, the production of which is particularly
energy demanding (World Bank, 2007). Increasing energy
prices would thus raise production costs, which would be
translated into higher commodity prices both regionally and
internationally. As the share of energy in production costs is
substantially higher for crops than for livestock, crop production
is particularly affected by changing energy prices
(OECD-FAO, 2006). However, since intensive livestock
production is strongly based on cereals and oilseed meal,
livestock products will be affected as well, although to a
lesser extent. Higher energy prices are therefore expected
to reduce trade volumes of most commodities, particularly
crops, all the more so because transport cost will also increase.
On the other hand, a further increase in crude oil
prices may promote a shift towards bioenergy production.
5.4.3 Bioenergy
Developments in bioenergy production represent a major
uncertainty for agricultural production and markets, and
for achieving SDGs in general. High energy prices combined
with increased biofuel production from food crops
could lead to large increases in food crop prices by affecting
both supply and demand (World Bank, 2007). Commodity
prices for crops such as maize, wheat, oilseed and sugar
may rise drastically (by 30-75%) (World Bank, 2007) and
competition between food and feed uses and nonfood uses
for particular crop sectors may result in major production
and market changes (OECD-FAO, 2006). Not only would
bioenergy crops be affected; through cross-commodity influence,
production and availability of traditional foods
and feeds might decrease. Furthermore, increased bioenergy
production might accelerate land conversion from forest to
agricultural use or from extensive to intensive production,
which mayâtogether with the escalating demand for livestock
productsâconsiderably affect the environment negatively
through deforestation and degradation of land and
water resources.
It is important to note that the currently observed boom
in producing bioenergy is mostly based on public support
and encouragement (OECD-FAO, 2006). Such support
may create market distortions that need to be better understood
before pertinent policies are put in place. However,
the economics of bioenergy, and particularly its positive and
negative externalities, are not yet well understood and depend
critically on local circumstances (Avato, 2007). These
knowledge gaps related to increased bioenergy production
call for investment in AKST research and development to
produce more sustainable technologies that are adapted to
smallholder farming systems. Research needs to develop second-
generation biofuels that rely on agricultural and timber
wastes instead of food crops, thus reducing the pressure on
food crop prices and possibly contributing to the supply of
more environmentally friendly supplies of biofuels (World
Bank, 2007).
5.4.4 Climate change
Global warming is one of the areas of greatest uncertainty
for agriculture (World Bank, 2007). So far, not all effects of
climate change on agricultural production and yields have
been included in cropâclimate models. Nonlinearity of yield
response to temperature above threshold levels can result
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in high losses with moderate temperature increases that are
not yet considered. The combined effect of higher average
temperatures plus variability of temperature and precipitation,
more frequent and intense droughts and floods, and
reduced availability of water for irrigation is likely to affect
yields negatively, even globally, and can be devastating
for agriculture in many tropical regions. Assumptions about
the magnitude of the effect of carbon fertilization are still
debated although they are critical for predicting whether
crop yields will increase under elevated CO2 concentrations.
Climate change is also increasing production risks in many
farming systems, reducing the ability of farmers and rural
societies to manage risks on their own.
Uncertainty regarding what climatic changes to expect is
even higher in view of increasing evidence that these changes
are happening at a pace faster than that until recently foreseen
(World Bank, 2007). Proactive strategies and research
are therefore crucial to face these uncertainties.
5.4.5 Genetically modified organisms (GMOs)
Worldwide, many people are eating genetically modified
foods with no adverse affects on human health having been
reported in peer-reviewed scientific literature. However,
there could still be long-term effects on human health that
have not yet been detected (genetically modified foods have
been available for fewer than ten years). Although many
field trials have been held, and in some parts of the world
there has been large-scale commercial planting of genetically
modified crops, work done has been insufficient to fully
assess environmental effects, especially in the biodiversityrich
tropics (OECD, 2000). Modern biotechnology has
opened up new avenues and opportunities in a wide range
of sectors, from agriculture to pharmaceutical production.
Nevertheless, the scale of the global debate on GMOs is
unprecedented. This debate, which is intensive and at times
emotionally charged, has polarized scientists, food producers,
consumers and public interest groups as well as governments
and policy makers (FAO, 2001). Today, it is not clear
to what extent the incredibly rapid expansion of genetically
modified crop production and use in animal (particularly
fish) production will continue, particularly in the developing
world. Due to the intensity of the debate over GMOs,
new discoveries may have massive effects, particularly on
the demand side. In addition, neglected investment of GMO
developers in traits and crops that will benefit the poor and
weak regulatory capacity and systems fuel public distrust
and ignite opposition of various interest groups to widespread
GMO use (World Bank, 2007).
People in general are directly interested in technological
developments, yet obstacles to their participating in making
decisions must be acknowledged and overcome. The public
has not been adequately informed about applying gene technology
to food production and the potential consequences
on consumer health or the environment. With the confusing
array of claims, counterclaims, scientific disagreement
and misrepresentation of research that is present in the media,
the public is losing faith in scientists and government.
Widely communicated, accurate and objective assessments
of the benefits and risks associated with genetic technologies
should involve all stakeholders. Experts have the ethical
obligation to be proactive and to communicate in terms
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