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Looking Into the Future for Agriculture and AKST | 341

Table 5-18. Selected international food prices, projected to 2050, reference run and AKST variations.

 

Reference run

AKST-high

AKST_low       AKST_high_pos

AKST_low_neg

Food

 

 

US$ per metric ton

 

 

Beef

2,756

-23%

36%

-31%

63%

Pork

1,164

-29%

48%

-40%

84%

Sheep & goat

3,079

-24%

36%

-34%

60%

Poultry

1,434

-34%

62%

-46%

114%

Rice

245

-46%

105%

-62%

232%

Wheat

173

-53%

173%

-68%

454%

Maize

114

-67%

311%

-81%

882%

Millet

312

-59%

204%

-72%

459%

Sorghum

169

-57%

200%

-70%

487%

Other coarse

104

-74%

545%

-86%

1952%

grains

 

 

 

 

 

Soybean

225

-31%

56%

-43%

106%

Source: IFPRI IMPACT model simulations.

5.4.5 The scope of improving water productivity
The reference run foresees a substantial increase in water consumption in agriculture, and particularly in non-agricul­tural sectors. This may be reason for concern. First, already more than a billion people live in river basins character­ized by physical water scarcity (CA, 2007). In these areas water availability is a major constraint to agriculture. With increased demand for water, existing scarcity will deepen while more areas will face seasonal or permanent shortages. Second, competition for water between sectors will inten­sify. With urbanization, demand for water in domestic and industrial sectors will increase between 2000 and 2050. In most countries water for cities receives priority over wa­ter for agriculture by law or de facto (Molle and Berkoff, 2006), leaving less water for agriculture, particularly near

 

large cities in water-short areas, such as MENA, Central Asia, India, Pakistan, Mexico, and northern China. Water for en­ergy, i.e., hydropower and crop production for biofuels, will further add to the pressure on water resources. Third, signs of severe environmental degradation because of water scar­city, overabstraction and water pollution are apparent in a growing number of places (Pimentel et al., 2004; MA, 2005; Khan et al., 2006; CA, 2007) with often severe consequenc­es for the poor who depend heavily on ecosystems for their livelihoods (Falkenmark et al., 2007). Lastly, climate change may exacerbate water problems particularly in semiarid ar­eas in Africa were the absolute amount of rain is expected to decline, while seasonal and interannual variation increas­es (Wescoat, 1991; Rees and Collins, 2004; Alcamo et al., 2005; Barnett et al., 2005; Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006).

Table 5-19. Irrigation water supply reliability, projected to 2050, reference run and AKST variations.

 

Reference

AKST_high_pos

AKST_low_neg

Region

Percent

North America and Europe (NAE)

64

72

60

East-South Asia and Pacific (ESAP)

56

66

51

Central-West Asia and North Africa (CWANA)

46

52

39

Latin America and Caribbean (LAC)

83

86

75

sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

87

92

85

Developed Countries

66

74

62

Developing Countries

56

65

51

World

58

67

53

Source: IFPRI IMPACT model simulations.

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